India-Maldives relations 2025
After a period of tension, India’s relations with the Maldives appear to be back on track. Since Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu visited India in October last year, three of his senior ministers have visited India within a month.
Analysts believe that the Maldives is recalibrating its foreign policy from a pro-China and anti-India stance to a more cautious balance between the two Asian giants while maximizing benefits from both countries. They believe that the current financial crisis in the Maldives has also contributed to its restoration of relations with India.
Maldives Defense Minister Mohammed Ghassan Maumoon held talks with Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh in New Delhi on Wednesday (January 8). During the meeting, the two sides vowed to strengthen bilateral security cooperation. India reiterated its commitment to strengthen the Maldives’ defense capabilities and provide defense platforms and assets. The two sides also discussed infrastructure projects in the Maldives that are supported by India.
The high-level talks come as China and the Maldives are gearing up to implement a free trade agreement (FTA) in the new year.
Since Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu visited India in October last year, three of his senior ministers have visited India within a month.
The series of visits comes eight months after the Maldives forced India to withdraw 70 military personnel from the country, who were tasked with operating three aircraft and providing humanitarian aid.
After a year of mutual recriminations and open hostility, relations have taken a rapid and positive turn. In just a few months, India has transformed from a regional bully to a strategic partner and close friend of the Maldivian government.
This confirms what Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said earlier. On March 3, 2024, in response to a question about the then-tense relations between India and the Maldives, he pinned his hopes on a persistent diplomatic strategy.
“In diplomacy, you always hold out hope. Yes, OK, keep going. Who knows what the future will be like one day?” he said.
Economic Problems in Paradise
Last week, visiting Maldives Foreign Minister Abdulla Khaleel called India “a country that responds immediately in times of need” and praised India’s “timely assistance through grants and concessional loans.”
The minister was referring to India’s recent tranche of financial aid, which included a currency swap deal of over $700 million, to stem the island nation’s ongoing debt crisis.
Besides alleviating Male’s debt burden, India has also stepped up its investments in infrastructure and development-related projects in the Maldives, most notably the Greater Male Link Project, the largest infrastructure project ever undertaken in the Maldives at a cost of over $500 million.
Is India a more reliable partner in times of trouble?
Dr. Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, a resident senior fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) in Canberra, believes that the much-needed assistance provided by India has helped restore trust between the two neighbors.
“There is a certain confidence among smaller countries that when things get tough, it’s India that’s going to be that reliable partner,” she told VOA.
However, Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asian Institute at the Wilson International Center for Scholars, believes that while the shift is significant, it is a “natural development” of India’s relations with the Maldives.
“This is a reflection of the Maldives wanting to develop relations with both India and China. It wants to have a better balance between the two,” he told VOA in an interview.
Last October, as the country faced a debt default, Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu traveled to New Delhi to meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The visit resulted in the Maldives receiving financial support from India and the announcement of a comprehensive economic and maritime security partnership. Muizzo called India “a key partner” that “stood with the Maldives in our time of need.”
This is in stark contrast to a few months ago. In the September 2023 election, Mohamed Muizzu won the election on the platform of “India Go Away” and gave New Delhi the cold shoulder after taking office. He visited Turkey in December 2023 and China in January 2024, respectively, breaking the tradition of making India his first overseas destination.
Beijing, seeing an opportunity, rolled out the red carpet for the new president and signed 20 agreements with him covering areas including security cooperation, infrastructure development, and the digital economy.
While Mohamed Muizzu was in China, India-Maldives relations further deteriorated after Maldivian ministers criticized Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s post on the social platform X (a predecessor to Twitter) about promoting the Indian Ocean archipelago of Lakshadweep as a tourist destination. Some in Male’ saw the move as an attempt to lure Indian tourists away from the Maldives.
The Maldivian president indirectly criticized India upon his return, asserting that his country would not be bullied. Although he suspended the ministers, the backlash it sparked led to a temporary drop in the number of Indian tourists arriving in the Maldives, fuelled by a “boycott Maldives” campaign by Indian celebrities and influencers.
In the game between big countries, should small countries survive in the cracks or try to get the best of both worlds?
Nilanthi Samaranayake, a visiting fellow at the United States Institute of Peace, said disputes between smaller and larger powers reflect those countries’ desire for “greater agency and autonomy.”
“The Maldives seeks as many opportunities as possible to increase trade with its partners and boost its foreign exchange reserves. Those partners necessarily include China,” she told VOA.
Dr. Daniel Balazs, a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, agreed.
“These small countries are not as powerful as the big ones, but they do have their own policies and try to navigate international relations in the best way possible,” Baraz added.
The diversification of the Maldives’ foreign policy has allowed China to make significant inroads here. The Chinese government maintains a strong economic presence in the Maldives. It has invested more than $1.4 billion in infrastructure projects under its flagship Belt and Road Initiative. In addition, the implementation of the free trade agreement is expected to boost the already growing bilateral trade. Recently, China has also become one of the largest sources of tourists to the Maldives.
Increased Chinese investment has also increased the Maldives’ debt levels. The Chinese government holds more than 20% of the Maldives’ public debt, the largest among any single creditor country.
The Wilson Center’s Kugelman noted that the strategy of striking deals with both India and China could “work in Malé’s favor if it plays its cards right.”
He added, “The Maldives has put itself in a position to receive significant financial support from both China and India. Like many smaller South Asian countries, the Maldives is facing economic pressures and could really benefit from economic support from Asia’s two most important economies.”
The Maldives, like many small South Asian countries, is experiencing economic stress and could really benefit from economic support from Asia’s two most important economies.
Becoming a duel arena for the competition between China and India
As the Maldives seeks to reap the economic benefits of hedging, it is also increasingly becoming a geopolitical duel between China and India.
The Maldives is an archipelago nation with 1,192 islands and a population of 520,000. It is strategically located along one of the world’s busiest waterways in the Indian Ocean. Traditionally, the Maldives has maintained close relations with its larger neighbor, India, which has ensured New Delhi’s influence and strong presence in the Indian Ocean region. However, over the past decade and a half, China has challenged India’s dominance by establishing deeper economic and security ties with smaller island nations and increasing its own military activities.
China has expanded its naval presence, sending research ships to map the Indian Ocean floor and stop in the Maldives and Sri Lanka. Experts believe the vessels are linked to the Chinese military and are collecting sensitive data on India’s maritime activities.
Baraz of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies believes that China’s “influence is here to stay,” citing China’s reliance on Indian Ocean sea routes for 80% of its energy supply as one of the main reasons.
“China’s presence is definitely here to stay. It’s not going to go away,” he added.
While India may have secured its interests in the Maldives for now, Dr. Rajagopalan of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute cautioned that recent developments should not be seen as a win for India or a loss for China.
“This is not going to end anytime soon, and we shouldn’t always look at the wins and losses. This is a very fluid situation. Things can change very quickly one way or another. China is here to play this game,” she concluded.
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