Super Tuesday
We’re still months away from the end of the U.S. presidential primary season, but most of the suspense over the final results will likely be settled within the next week as voters in 15 states, including the nation’s two largest states, will Voting begins on March 5, with voters in four more states set to cast their ballots seven days later.
On the Democratic side, President Joe Biden appears well-positioned to continue his sweeping victory in the Democratic primary field, with other candidates lacking enough winning credibility to prevent him from running for the party’s nomination. Re-elected.
Former President Donald Trump has dominated the Republican primaries so far, winning all but Sunday’s primary in Washington, D.C. While former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley continues to appear on the ballot, Trump appears poised to win most or all of the states voting on Super Tuesday, including delegate-heavy Texas and California.
If Trump performs as expected on March 5, he will be on track to exceed the number of delegates needed to clinch the Republican nomination a week later, on March 12, when four more states vote, even if half of the states and several districts have yet to vote, and there are still four months until the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee to nominate the party’s presidential candidate.
Unexpectedly Uncompetitive
Caitlin E. Jewitt, associate professor of political science at Virginia Tech, told the media that the 2024 presidential primary is very uncompetitive. While incumbents rarely face serious primary challenges, Trump’s status as the most recent Republican president and his continued control of the Republican base appear to give him an advantage similar to that of an incumbent.
“We’re basically facing an incumbent versus a would-be incumbent, and that’s unprecedented,” Jewett said. “Normally, we would see at least one side, if not both sides, have competing nominations, so in many ways, “it makes this primary less interesting. Candidates are really looking at the general election earlier than usual.”
Trump also benefited from the rules of the Republican primary. In most cases, she said, Republicans would give all of a state’s delegates to the candidate with a majority of primary votes under a “winner-take-all” rule, rather than dividing them proportionally.
“On Super Tuesday, President Trump will win the vast majority, if not all, of the delegates, thereby increasing his chances of winning the nomination,” Jewett said.
Haley has not given up!
despite his success in winning delegates. Even though Haley is still running within the party, now playing the role of a “protest candidate,” she is using her campaign to claim that Trump is unfit to be president, and after losing to Biden in 2020, he will most likely be defeated again.
As of the end of the week, Haley had received just 43 delegates to Trump’s 244. The “Super Tuesday” voting involves 865 representatives, and the gap between the two is expected to widen dramatically. A total of 2,429 delegates attended the party congress, meaning a candidate would need 1,215 votes to exceed 50% of the total votes cast and win the nomination.
Jaime Dominguez, an associate professor of political science at Northwestern University, said that even though Haley’s odds of winning are slim, she could still have a significant impact on the Republican race by staying in the race.
Dominguez told the media: “It looks like she’s going to keep running, which will be interesting because I think she’s a thorn in Trump’s side. Even though she’s no longer competitive, she can’t change the delegate count, but she will play an important role in terms of the messaging her campaign puts out around specific issues.”
Biden faces challenges from the left
On the Democratic side, President Joe Biden has won all of his primaries so far by wide margins and is expected to continue to do so. However, some on the political left are increasingly trying to encourage Democratic voters to stop supporting President Biden in protest of his support for Israel during its attacks on Gaza over the past few months.
In Michigan last week, Biden won with 81% of the vote, but 13% of voters in the Democratic primary voted “uncommitted” instead of Biden or other candidates.
“Following the momentum in Michigan, we need to continue to speak out even louder to President Biden,” Joseph Geevarghese, executive director of Our Revolution, said at a news conference Monday. A clear message – we need a ceasefire now. If we don’t change course, he’s going to put our democracy at risk.” He
said his group, along with others opposed to Biden’s support for Israel, would work to convince Democrats in other states Voters continued to express dissatisfaction with Biden’s policies by refusing to vote for him.
Mostly Symbolic
While these protest votes will send a message to Biden during the primary, Virginia Tech’s Jewett said she doesn’t expect the movement to have a strong impact on voters before Biden vs. Trump in November. It could have a big impact on how you behave when you face off again.
“I think for now, it’s symbolic,” Jewett said. “This signals to President Biden and his administration that Democrats are frustrated with the situation in Israel and Gaza. But we need to be careful not to read too much into it.” “
Right now, we are seven months away from the election, especially since we are seven months away from the election. If Trump and Biden were to face off again—and that seems likely to be the case—Democrats might rally around Biden, if only because they don’t want Trump in power anymore,” she said.
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