1000 Days of Ukraine Russia War Attrition: How the Conflict Grinds On

1000 Days of Ukraine Russia War Attrition

After 1000 days of grueling war, Russia pushes deeper into Ukraine

As the conflict in Ukraine approaches its 1,000th day, initial expectations of a swift Russian victory have been upended by Ukraine’s resilience and Western support. Despite significant military aid, Ukraine faces dire challenges, including territorial losses and dwindling resources, particularly following the fall of key areas like Avdiivka.

The situation is further complicated by the potential influence of President-elect Donald Trump, who may alter U.S. military support for Ukraine, raising concerns about future negotiations and Russian aggression. While Ukraine achieved notable military success by capturing territory in Russia’s Kursk region, the conflict has evolved into a war of attrition, with both sides relying heavily on external resources. As winter approaches, Ukrainian forces remain determined to maintain their positions despite overwhelming odds.

Key Concepts

• The conflict in Ukraine has persisted for nearly 1,000 days, defying initial expectations of a swift Russian victory.
• Ukraine’s resilience and Western support have played crucial roles in its defense against Russian advances.
• The situation in Ukraine has become increasingly dire, with Russia making gradual territorial gains.
• The prospect of negotiations remains bleak, particularly with the potential influence of President-elect Donald Trump.
• Former National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien warned that cutting U.S. aid could lead to further Russian territorial expansion.
• Ukraine experienced significant territorial losses in the war’s first year but also achieved notable victories.
• The fall of key locations like Bakhmut and Avdiivka has weakened Ukraine’s defensive capabilities.
• In August 2024, Ukraine launched a surprise invasion into Russia, capturing territory in the Kursk region.
• The psychological impact of Ukraine’s retreat has bolstered Russia’s moral standing in the conflict.
• Both Ukraine and Russia are increasingly reliant on external resources to sustain their military efforts.
• Russia has received military support from Iran and North Korea, complicating the conflict further.
• Ukrainian forces express concern about the sustainability of their fight without continued American support.
• The incoming Trump administration’s stance on Ukraine raises concerns about future negotiations and support.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky faces challenges in replenishing forces amidst rising casualties.
• An official from Zaporizhia highlighted the determination of Ukrainian forces to maintain their positions and avoid further losses.

As Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine in February 2022, conventional wisdom held that the capital, Kiev, would soon fall and that the rest of Ukraine would not hold out for much longer in the face of a more powerful enemy.

But that narrative quickly fell apart. Ukrainian forces had proven they could slow the Russian advance and, if not drive it out entirely, at least stop its rout with enough Western support.

But nearly three years later, the outlook has dimmed again. Russia is expending vast quantities of weapons and men in an attempt to make small but steady inroads into the nearly one-fifth of Ukraine it already controls. Meanwhile, Ukraine is struggling to minimize its losses, maintain morale, and convince its allies that it can turn the tide with more military aid.

As the brutal war of attrition approaches its 1000 days of Ukraine Russia war, neither side seems eager to negotiate. President-elect Donald Trump has said he could end the war quickly, though it’s unclear how he would do it or to which side’s advantage.

That backdrop appears to be driving Russia’s strategy in eastern Ukraine, said Phillips O’Brien, a professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland. He said Trump might try to end the war by stopping the supply of weapons to Ukraine.

“If Trump cuts aid to Ukraine and a ceasefire freezes the conflict, Russia will now want to grab as much territory as possible.”

O’Brien said. Crucial to Ukraine’s ceasefire is Western assurances that it will not allow another Russian invasion in the future. Otherwise, O’Brien said, “a ceasefire will only keep Europe destabilized.”

Russian troops slowly but steadily advance into eastern Ukraine

In the first year of the war, Ukraine lost large swaths of territory but also achieved significant victories. Ukraine resisted a powerful adversary with strong air power, survived as an independent country, and recovered some land through a daring counteroffensive, giving the vulnerable country and its wealthy allies the confidence to keep fighting.

The next year, Ukraine suffered a disastrous defeat at Bakhmut and a failed counteroffensive, with Ukrainian troops essentially stalemated along a 1,000-kilometer front. At the end of that year, the U.S. Congress delayed approving a $61 billion package of weapons and economic and humanitarian aid.

As Ukraine’s weapons dwindle and the war enters its third year, its prospects have deteriorated significantly. In February 2024, the town of Avdiivka fell after months of Russian airstrikes, using highly destructive Soviet-era bombs with guided missiles.

The fall of Avdiivka caused significant damage to Ukraine’s defenses. When Russia subsequently launched an offensive against the northeastern city of Kharkiv, Ukrainian forces were further stretched.

In August, Ukraine had a brilliant battlefield performance, launching a surprise invasion of Russia and seizing hundreds of square kilometers of territory in the Kursk region, which it still holds today. While this may be an important bargaining chip in any ceasefire negotiations, it has not stopped Russian troops from seizing more land in eastern Ukraine.

“The Russians are paying a very high price to continue to advance, but they are willing to pay the price of lives to gain a few more meters of territory a day,” said Justin Crump, head of the British strategic consulting firm Sibylline.

Tens of thousands of soldiers from both countries are estimated to have died since the war began in 2022, and the United Nations says at least 11,700 Ukrainian civilians have died.

In 2024, Russia has captured approximately 2,455 square kilometers of land, which represents less than 1% of Ukraine’s total territory before the war. Despite this relatively small gain, the impact on morale is significant, as it is having a psychological effect.

With Ukraine’s retreat, “we are now back to the period of the first months of the war,” said Mykola Bielieskov, an analyst at the CBA Initiative Center in Kyiv. “This has strengthened Russia’s position—not so much militarily as morally.”

In war, both sides have to look for external resources.

To keep its war machine running, Russia—like Ukraine—has turned to its allies for help.

Iran has supplied Russia with drones and missiles, while North Korea has provided Russia with ammunition—and even sent troops, deploying to Russia’s Kursk region.

Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed this year that his 700,000-man army was fighting in Ukraine. Analysts say Putin needs a stronger military to accelerate Russia’s advance, but he is unlikely to mobilize more troops because it might stir internal resentment.

Ukraine’s foothold in Kursk is another complication for Putin that could be used as leverage in future ceasefire talks.

Captain Yevhen Karas, a Ukrainian commander in Kursk, said the fighting inside Russia was intense, but he believed it would be an effective diversion of Russia’s attention and resources.

“Even a slowly retreating front will tire the enemy out,” Karas said.

Ukraine has asked the West for longer-range missiles and for Ukraine to strike air bases inside Russia. But its allies have so far refused, fearing escalating tensions with nuclear-armed Russia.

The United States has provided Ukraine with more than $64 billion in military aid since the war broke out 1,000 days ago. Soldiers worry about how the fighting will fare without continued American support.

“Bravery, heroism, and spirit alone are not enough,” said a Ukrainian soldier in the eastern Donetsk region who asked not to be named because of military regulations.

The soldier estimated that where he was stationed, Russian infantry outnumbered Ukrainian troops 10 to one. As the fighting drags on and the death toll rises, it is becoming increasingly difficult for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to continue to replenish his forces.

The United States will play a crucial role in determining the next course of the war.

How the war goes next depends largely on how the incoming Trump administration conducts itself.

Trump, who has said he has a good relationship with President Vladimir Putin and called the Russian leader’s invasion of Ukraine “very smart,” has also repeatedly criticized U.S. support for Ukraine.

In his only campaign debate with Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump twice refused to directly answer questions about whether he wanted Ukraine to win – raising concerns that Kiev could be forced to accept unfavorable terms in any negotiations.

Without Western security guarantees, Ukraine could find itself vulnerable to future Russian aggression. Analysts say a ceasefire based on current battlefield conditions would set a dangerous precedent, meaning Europe’s borders could be seized through military action—something that has not happened since World War II.

“It will also have a big impact on countries like China and India,” said Richard Connolly, a Russia expert at the Royal United Services Institute in London. “They can see this as a strategic failure not only for Ukraine but also for the West.”

As another winter of war approaches, Ukrainian soldiers say they remain steadfast.

“We are steadfast and we are committed, and we will not surrender,” said a battalion chief of staff in the southern region of Zaporizhia. “The most important thing now is not to lose more ground.”