Japan Elects New Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba Amid Political Turmoil

Japan Elects New Prime Minister

Shigeru Ishiba wins the House of Representatives prime minister election, but his weak governance prospects are difficult

On November 11, the Japanese House of Representatives supported Shigeru Ishiba, president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), as prime minister amidst a challenging political landscape marked by the LDP’s loss of its majority in the recent elections, dropping from 247 to 191 seats. Ishiba’s government now relies on a fragile coalition with the Komeito party, controlling only 215 of the 465 total seats.

He faces pressing issues, including rising living costs, domestic scandals involving unrecorded donations, international challenges from the protectionist U.S. under Donald Trump, and tensions with China and North Korea. Ishiba’s immediate priorities include crafting a supplementary budget and strengthening the Japan-U.S. alliance, highlighted by an upcoming meeting with Trump, his first visit to the U.S. as prime minister.

Key Concepts

• Shigeru Ishiba was supported by the House of Representatives to continue as Japan’s prime minister despite the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) losing its majority.
• The LDP’s seat count dropped significantly from 247 to 191 after recent elections, complicating Ishiba’s policy initiatives.
• Ishiba’s government relies on a fragile minority coalition, controlling only 46% of the total seats in the House of Representatives.
• Rising domestic pressures include managing living costs and increased welfare spending demands from voters.
• Ishiba won a televised parliamentary vote with 221 votes, but no candidate achieved a majority in the first round, leading to a runoff.
• The upcoming upper house elections pose a challenge for Ishiba to restore public trust amid a scandal involving unrecorded donations.
• Ishiba aims to develop a supplementary budget addressing fiscal demands before the end of the fiscal year in March.
• He plans to participate in key international events like the APEC and G20 summits, where he will meet with U.S. leaders.
• Concerns exist regarding potential protectionist measures from former President Trump and increased military cost-sharing demands on Japan.
• Ishiba recently spoke with Trump to enhance the Japan-U.S. alliance, emphasizing military cooperation and operations.
• The upcoming meeting between Ishiba and Trump will be Ishiba’s first visit to the U.S. as prime minister, with the location still to be determined.

The House of Representatives of Japan Elects New Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), amid political challenges and a weakened coalition on Monday (November 11). However, the LDP’s ruling coalition, which has been plagued by scandals such as campaign funding, lost its majority in the House of Representatives election last month, making the new cabinet’s policy prospects extremely difficult.

Ishiba dissolved the House of Representatives and held an election eight days after taking office on October 1, but he ruined his position in the House of Representatives re-election on October 27. The LDP seats he led dropped sharply from 247 seats before the election to 191 seats. Together with the 24 seats of the ruling coalition’s friendly party, Komeito, the total number of seats is 215, accounting for only 46% of the total 465 seats in the House of Representatives, far lower than the 60% seat share of the ruling coalition before the election.

With protectionist Donald Trump set to retake power in the United States, Japan’s main ally, tensions rising with rivals China and North Korea, and domestic pressure to control living costs growing, Ishiba now must manage a fragile minority government that relies on a smattering of small parties to push his policy agenda.

That fragility was underscored by the fact that no candidate was able to secure a majority of 233 votes in the first round of voting, the first televised parliamentary vote in 30 years to go to a runoff.

But Ishiba prevailed as expected, winning 221 votes in the lower house, far ahead of his nearest challenger, former prime minister Yoshihiko Noda, leader of the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party, who received 160 votes. Another 84 votes were invalid in the second round of the runoff.

Japan will hold elections for the weaker upper house of parliament next year. The ruling coalition’s slim majority could also be at risk if Ishiba fails to restore public trust in the government by then. The LDP has been roiled by a scandal over unrecorded donations to lawmakers.

Ishiba’s immediate challenge is to compile a supplementary budget for the fiscal year ending in March, under pressure from voters and opposition parties to increase welfare spending and take measures to offset rising prices.

Ishiba will also be involved in a series of international events, including the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Peru on November 15-16 and the Group of 20 (G20) summit in Brazil on November 18-19. He plans to meet with U.S. President Joe Biden during his visit to South America and hopes to arrange a stop in the United States before and after the G20 summit to meet with re-elected President Trump.

Some Japanese officials are concerned that Trump may hit Tokyo with protectionist trade measures again and renew demands that Japan pay more for the U.S. military presence.

However, these issues were largely alleviated during Trump’s first term from 2017 to 2021 due to the close relationship between Trump and then-Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Shigeru Ishiba also seems keen to re-establish this bond.

According to Japan’s Yomiuri Shimbun, Shigeru Ishiba had a telephone conversation with Trump last Thursday and agreed to a face-to-face meeting soon to build mutual trust and stabilize and strengthen the alliance between the two countries.

Reports say that Trump’s diplomacy is often strongly influenced by personal relationships with other national leaders. After the 2016 U.S. presidential election, then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visited New York and became the first foreign leader to meet with President-elect Trump. They began to establish a close personal relationship.

Shigeru Ishiba and Trump’s telephone conversation lasted about five minutes, and the two reiterated their commitment to strengthening the Japan-U.S. alliance. After the phone conversation, Ishiba expressed his enthusiasm to the media at the prime minister’s residence, saying he wanted to discuss strengthening the alliance from all angles, including equipment, operations, and joint command.

If the meeting between the two goes ahead, it will be Ishiba’s first visit to the United States as prime minister. The meeting between the two may take place at Trump’s New York headquarters or in Florida, where his residence is located.