How Anura Kumara Dissanayake Will Shape Sri Lanka’s Foreign Policy with China and India?

Sri Lanka’s new president takes office. How will he balance relations with China and India?

New Delhi- Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s election as president of Sri Lanka represents a significant shift in the country’s political landscape, occurring amidst economic challenges and public discontent with traditional leaders. His administration faces the critical task of balancing relations between China and India, two influential neighbors with competing interests in the strategically vital island nation.

While Dissanayake’s left-wing government aims to prioritize national interests and reduce foreign dependency, he must navigate Sri Lanka’s substantial debt to China and address India’s security concerns. His ability to implement economic reforms and maintain strategic autonomy will be crucial for the country’s recovery and its role in the evolving geopolitical dynamics of South Asia.

Key Concepts

• Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s election as president marks a significant shift in Sri Lanka’s political landscape amidst economic challenges.
• Dissanayake’s victory indicates growing public discontent with traditional political figures and a potential move toward a left-wing government.
• Sri Lanka’s strategic position in the Indian Ocean makes it a focal point in the geopolitical rivalry between China and India.
• India seeks to limit Chinese influence in Sri Lanka due to security concerns and historical ties to the Tamil population.
• Dissanayake’s party, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, has a left-wing orientation and is critical of foreign ownership of state assets.
• China’s investments in Sri Lanka have raised concerns about “debt-trap diplomacy” and increasing economic dependence.
• Dissanayake is expected to adopt a balanced foreign policy, maintaining ties with both China and India while addressing economic challenges.
• The new president’s campaign promises to focus on eliminating corruption and prioritizing economic sovereignty.
• Dissanayake’s limited governing experience and Marxist-Leninist ideology may pose challenges for business and civil society.
• India’s strategic interests in Sri Lanka will require engagement with Dissanayake, despite his ideological differences from previous leaders.
• Dissanayake’s administration aims to promote local industry and diversify foreign aid sources to enhance economic resilience.
• The geopolitical dynamics in South Asia may shift significantly depending on Dissanayake’s foreign policy decisions regarding China and India.
• Public expectations for improved living standards and reduced foreign dependency will be crucial for Dissanayake’s political survival.
• The outcome of Dissanayake’s presidency could reshape regional stability and influence the broader competition between global powers in the Indian Ocean.

The election of Anura Kumara Dissanayake, the leftist leader of Sri Lanka’s National People’s Power (NPP), as president marks a major shift in the country’s political landscape. His victory comes as Sri Lanka faces economic uncertainty, a complex foreign policy environment, and deep public disillusionment with traditional political elites.

Dissanayake, a charismatic figure with a commitment to change, now faces the daunting task of striking a balance between China and India—two powerful neighbors with competing interests in this strategically important Indian Ocean island nation.

The Sept. 21 election was the first in Sri Lanka’s history to require a second round of voting to declare a winner. Opposition leader Sajith Premadasa came in second, and incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe was eliminated after the first round, reflecting growing public dissatisfaction with established political forces.

Dissanayake’s victory marks a shift toward a left-wing government in Sri Lanka, which could have implications for the country’s international relations, especially with China and India.

Sri Lanka’s strategic importance and China-India competition

Sri Lanka’s strategic location in the Indian Ocean makes it a key geopolitical target for both India and China. For India, Sri Lanka has a lot at stake due to its proximity to its southern coast and key security installations. Sri Lanka’s large Tamil population, which has deep cultural and familial ties to the Indian state of Tamil Nadu, also adds another layer of complexity to the relationship. India’s main concern is to ensure that no foreign power, especially China, exerts undue influence over Sri Lanka.

China’s growing influence in Sri Lanka has been a major tension point for India over the past decade. From large infrastructure projects such as the Hambantota Port on a 99-year lease to massive investments in the port city of Colombo, China’s footprint in Sri Lanka has made New Delhi worried about potential threats to its security and regional dominance. India has sought to maintain a friendly government in Colombo, often backing political leaders deemed more aligned with its interests.

“The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh party, led by Dissanayake, has its roots in left-wing politics and historical ties to the pro-China wing of Sri Lanka’s communist movement,” said Rathindra Kuruwita, a journalist and researcher in Colombo. “The party’s platform includes strong opposition to foreign control of state assets, a position that resonates with many Sri Lankans who are concerned about Indian influence, particularly in areas such as ports, airports and energy. Dissanayake’s criticism of India’s Adani Group’s investments in Sri Lanka highlights his party’s broader resistance to foreign economic control.”

How to maintain a balance between China and India

However, some experts believe that despite these pro-China tendencies, Dissanayake may not completely turn pro-China during his presidency. Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy, associate fellow at the strategic studies program at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi, believes that given Sri Lanka’s unstable economic situation, Dissanayake is likely to take a balanced approach.

“I don’t think Anuradha will lean towards being pro-China,” Shivamurthy told VOA. “Given the situation in Sri Lanka and the aid from India and the large amount of loans from China, his actions will be very limited. The most we can see is that he will continue to balance between India and China.”

Shivamurthy further pointed out that the Dissanayake government’s assurance to India that it would not affect India’s security concerns indicates that the Dissanayake government will adopt a pragmatic approach in foreign policy despite the common communist tendencies between the BJP and China. However, this balancing act will be challenging as China continues to pressure Sri Lanka to seek greater regional influence.

Dealing with the “debt trap”

One of the most pressing issues facing the new president will be dealing with Sri Lanka’s growing debt to China. There is growing public discontent in Sri Lanka over “debt-trap diplomacy,” which critics accuse China of practicing by inducing lenders to comply with Beijing through unsustainable lending for infrastructure projects. Dissanayake’s government is expected to take a cautious approach to new Chinese projects, possibly renegotiating terms to prevent further economic entanglements.

Dissanayake’s promises to “eradicate the culture of corruption” and adopt a new approach to governance have resonated with voters, but it remains unclear whether his left-leaning economic populism can deliver on those promises without alienating key international partners.

Dissanayake faces the daunting task of stabilizing an economy battered by a severe debt crisis fueled partly by Chinese loans. His focus on economic sovereignty is expected to boost Sri Lanka’s efforts to diversify sources of foreign aid and investment.

While China’s role in Sri Lanka’s economic recovery is unlikely to diminish, Dissanayake may seek to balance Beijing’s influence by more robustly engaging other international partners, including India.

Dr. Gulveen Sultana, associate fellow at the South Asia Center of the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses in New Delhi, pointed out that Dissanayake’s rise reflects the people’s demand for change. She told VOA: “People believe that since the National People’s Congress has never been in power and the people associated with this alliance are not part of the existing system, they may take a new approach to solve the problems currently plaguing the country and bring about necessary reforms.”

But she also warned that Dissanayake’s lack of governing experience and his party’s Marxist-Leninist leanings could cause concern among Colombo’s business elite and civil society.

Countering Chinese influence has long guided India’s strategic thinking in Sri Lanka. By backing opposition leader Sajith Premadasa, New Delhi hoped to see a government more aligned with its interests, particularly in areas such as the implementation of the 13th Amendment to the Constitution, which grants greater autonomy to Sri Lanka’s Tamil minority, a long-standing demand from India. However, Premadasa’s failure to be elected president means India must now find a way to constructively engage with a leader who could pose a challenge on both ideological grounds and foreign policy positions.

India is likely to emphasize areas of mutual interest such as trade, security cooperation, and regional connectivity to maintain a foothold in Sri Lanka. Platforms such as the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sector Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) and the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) can serve as channels for India to deepen its economic and strategic ties with Colombo.

Balanced diplomacy faces a test

Ultimately, Dissanayake’s ability to navigate Sri Lanka’s complex foreign relations will depend on his ability to strike a delicate balance between India and China. His reputation as a pragmatic nationalist and consensus builder may help him in pursuing economic reforms that prioritize Sri Lanka’s sovereignty while managing international partnerships. However, his task will be no easy task given the intense geopolitical competition in the region.

As Dissanayake takes power, his administration’s approach to China and India will be closely watched. While the new president has pledged a break with the past, the extent to which he can deliver on his promises of reform while maintaining strategic autonomy will be a key factor in determining Sri Lanka’s future path.

Dissanayake’s diplomatic balance act between China and India will be tested not only by economic challenges but also by growing domestic pressures. His government inherits a country still recovering from last year’s unprecedented economic crisis, which led to mass protests, a plunge in the Sri Lankan rupee, and severe shortages of essentials such as fuel, food, and medicine. Popular disillusionment with traditional political parties played a major role in Dissanayake’s rise, but maintaining that support will require concrete actions, especially in terms of improving living standards and reducing Sri Lanka’s dependence on foreign powers.

Sri Lanka’s new president’s preference for putting national interests above foreign influence resonates with a population increasingly wary of foreign control. Yet striking a balance between accommodating China’s strategic foothold and responding to India’s security concerns will require a delicate touch.

Analysts believe Dissanayake may seek to enhance Sri Lanka’s economic resilience by diversifying investments, promoting local industries, and seeking support from multilateral institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank to reduce the country’s dependence on any single country.

Dissanayake’s foreign policy approach could also have a wider impact on South Asia’s geopolitical landscape. As he attempts to carve out an independent path for Sri Lanka, his decisions will be scrutinized by neighbors and international stakeholders. Any move toward China could alarm other countries in the region, especially given ongoing concerns about Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative and its strategic ambitions in the Indian Ocean.

Dissanayake’s inauguration as president comes at a critical moment for Sri Lanka, whose quest for economic recovery and political stability is becoming entangled with the struggle between China and India for power and influence in the wider region. Dissanayake’s ability to balance these competing forces will determine not only Sri Lanka’s future but also the geopolitical dynamics of the entire region as countries navigate their own paths amid great power competition.