Amidst the clamor and fervor surrounding the recent elections, one unequivocal message resounded: Abortion rights enjoy widespread political favor, regardless of the location or timing of the vote. This resounding sentiment bodes well for the Democrats as they strategize for the 2024 elections.
Governor Glenn Youngkin, a Virginia Republican, who believed he could navigate one of the most intransigent dilemmas in American politics by proposing “reasonable” abortion restrictions, will not oversee a GOP-dominated legislature in the Commonwealth. This shift denied the party control over the state Senate, effectively ending his aspirations for a 15-week abortion ban and quashing rumors of a potential 2024 presidential bid.
Concurrently, Ohio’s voters decisively expressed their desire for constitutionally protected abortion rights, by approving a ballot measure. This occurred just a few months after they rejected a similar measure aimed at making it more challenging to safeguard abortion rights.
In Kentucky, the Democratic governor emerged victorious over his Republican rival, who had close ties to former President Donald Trump and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Abortion became a pivotal issue in their campaign.
The Democrats’ retention of control over the Virginia state Senate marks a trifecta of energizing outcomes. This is especially significant given recent disheartening polls, showing President Joe Biden facing an arduous battle against Trump in a potential 2024 rematch.
Here are the salient takeaways from the election night, which proved to be favorable for the Democrats:
As Ohio goes, does the nation follow?
The election results from Tuesday night may not substantially alter the dynamics for Biden’s 2024 prospects, given Ohio’s recent presidential voting history. However, the outcomes in the Buckeye State could potentially boost Senator Sherrod Brown’s challenging reelection campaign next year.
Abortion rights, already a potent factor for Democrats, have further solidified their significance in the upcoming elections, as Ohio, an increasingly conservative state that twice supported Trump, enshrined them in the state’s constitution through a ballot measure.
States, whether red, blue, or purple, have greenlit similar initiatives, defying partisan expectations and potentially exerting a substantial influence on the federal elections in the coming year.
Ohio Republicans might have encountered a relatively easy referendum, conducted in an off-year with no voting for statewide offices or the presidency. Other state Republican parties may not be as fortunate. In Arizona, activists are collecting signatures for a 2024 ballot initiative that mirrors Ohio’s, prompting concerns among the state’s Republicans.
“Tonight’s results in Ohio should worry every Republican in a state where abortion is on the ballot in 2024,” warned Arizona Republican strategist Barrett Marson. “Abortion initiatives are mobilizing Democratic voter turnout and forcing Republicans to address an issue where they find themselves at odds with the electorate.”
Several potential swing states, including Pennsylvania, Iowa, Florida, and Colorado, could feature abortion rights measures on their ballots alongside the presidential candidates next year.
Glenn Youngkin and Virginia Face Obstacles
Governor Youngkin’s hopes for 2024 took a significant hit on Tuesday, as Virginia voters denied him and his party the legislative majorities they coveted.
This means that the proposed 15-week abortion ban, which Youngkin advocated as a “reasonable” solution, will not come to fruition. This also casts doubt on rumors of Youngkin’s late entry into the 2024 GOP presidential primary. His strategy hinged on creating a coalition that encompassed the far-right, the center-right, and centrist swing voters—a formula that secured his gubernatorial victory in 2021.
However, with Virginia Democrats projected to retain control of the state Senate and flip the House of Delegates, Youngkin’s influence seems to have reached its limits.
Andy Beshear’s re-election in Kentucky was a significant win
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Andy Beshear |
However, it raises questions about who suffered the loss. Beshear secured a second term in a state that Trump won by over 25 points in 2020.
Endorsed by Trump but often regarded as McConnell’s protege, Daniel Cameron’s defeat will undoubtedly lead to introspection within the Republican Party. Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie wasted no time in pointing fingers at the former president, calling the result “another loss for Trump.”
“The losing streak for Republicans will only end if we distance ourselves from Donald Trump,” Christie asserted. “Trump—defeated in ’18, ’20, ’21, ’22, and now ’23.”
Trump may offer a different perspective, but it’s apparent that neither of these prominent Republican leaders had a direct impact on the Kentucky electorate. Kentucky voters had previously rejected a ballot measure seeking to deny constitutional protections for abortion. During the campaign, Beshear criticized Cameron, the state attorney general, for supporting the strict abortion law currently in place, which lacks exceptions for cases of rape or incest.
Democrats’ Success Despite Biden’s Weak Polling
Despite President Biden’s recent unfavorable polling for the 2024 election, his party achieved a series of high-stakes victories on Tuesday night. Democratic candidates and issues secured significant wins.
Nonetheless, it has been a challenging week for Biden, with multiple 2024 polls showing him trailing behind figures like Trump, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, albeit by narrow margins, in hypothetical matchups against the president, as per a new poll of registered voters.
Similarly, battleground state surveys conducted by The New York Times and Siena College over the weekend painted a bleak picture for Biden.
But for one night at least, the Biden campaign found cause for celebration. After Beshear’s victory in Kentucky and Ohio’s endorsement of abortion rights in its state constitution, Biden’s campaign manager issued a statement, highlighting the results.
“In numerous races since Donald Trump’s conservative Supreme Court appointments overturned Roe v. Wade, we have observed Americans overwhelmingly aligning with President Biden and the Democratic vision for our nation,” declared Julie Chavez Rodriguez, Biden’s campaign manager. She also criticized “the dangerous MAGA extremism that has come to define today’s Republican Party at every level.”
Direct votes on contentious issues often do not align with candidate performance, even when those candidates hold positions favored by the public. Nevertheless, another round of elections where abortion rights garnered broad bipartisan support is undoubtedly positive news for a president who could use some optimism after recent weeks.
Historic Victories in Rhode Island and Philadelphia
After Tuesday night’s results, government representation appears to more closely mirror the governed population.
In Rhode Island, Democrat Gabe Amo is projected to become the first Black person to represent the state in Congress.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee welcomed this milestone, acknowledging Amo’s dedication and leadership. Meanwhile, in Philadelphia, former city council member Cherelle Parker will become the first woman to lead the City of Brotherly Love. She will be the city’s fourth Black mayor and the 100th mayor in its illustrious history.
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