One Year later Hamas Attacked Israel
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, marked by a significant escalation in violence following Hamas’s large-scale attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, has led to a humanitarian crisis in Gaza and heightened regional tensions. Israel’s military operations have resulted in substantial casualties among both Hamas fighters and Palestinian civilians, with reports of around 24,000 deaths in Gaza.
The situation has prompted discussions about Israel potentially reoccupying Gaza to prevent Hamas’s resurgence, while the broader geopolitical landscape has been influenced by Iran’s involvement and the actions of regional proxies. Despite the U.S. and other powers’ attempts to mediate, the conflict continues to evolve, affecting diplomatic relations, economic conditions, and the humanitarian situation across the region.
Key Concepts
- The October 7, 2023, Hamas attack marked the deadliest event in Jewish history since the Holocaust, leading to significant Israeli military responses.
- Israel’s military operations in Gaza have resulted in substantial Palestinian casualties, raising humanitarian concerns amid ongoing conflict.
- The situation in Gaza has led to a severe humanitarian crisis, with 90% of the population displaced and critical shortages of essential supplies.
- The conflict has created a complex dynamic involving regional actors like Hezbollah and Iranian-backed militias, escalating tensions across the Middle East.
- The ongoing hostilities have adversely impacted the economies of Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank, resulting in increased unemployment and rising prices.
- Israel’s military actions have significantly altered the balance of power in the region, raising questions about the future of Palestinian governance.
- The geopolitical landscape has shifted, with Iran leveraging the Palestinian conflict to enhance its influence while challenging Israel’s military capabilities.
- The recent escalation of conflicts in Lebanon and Syria underscores the interconnectedness of regional tensions and the potential for broader confrontations.
- Analysts are divided on the implications of recent changes in the Middle East, particularly regarding the future of Palestinian territories and Israeli settlement policies.
- The influence of great powers like the U.S., China, and Russia in the Middle East has diminished, complicating the prospects for effective conflict resolution.
At 6:29 a.m. on October 7, 2023, thousands of rockets were fired from the Gaza Strip into Israel. At the same time, thousands of Hamas militants infiltrated Israel in pickup trucks, motorcycles, or on foot. In the ensuing chaos, Hamas and its allies caused 1,200 deaths and 251 hostages in Israel.
This day became the bloodiest day in Jewish history since the Holocaust and the third deadliest attack in global history. The events of October 7th profoundly affected and changed the power structure, diplomatic relations, and humanitarian situation in the Middle East, and their impact is still ongoing.
Israel’s response: launching the Gaza war
In response to Hamas’s attacks, Israel launched airstrikes and naval and ground offensives against Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip, which are still ongoing. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the goal of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is to achieve a “complete victory” over Hamas, including destroying its military and governance capabilities in Gaza and rescuing all hostages.
The goal has sparked a fierce debate among Israeli officials and international leaders over whether it is possible to fully eradicate Hamas’s influence in Gaza or Palestinian politics.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said in September 2024: “Hamas as a military establishment no longer exists.” However, Israeli troops remain in Gaza, and Gallant said they continue to “fight Hamas terrorists and hunt down its leadership.”
Ghassan Khatib, a former Palestinian Authority minister and professor of international studies at Birzeit University, predicted: “Israel will eventually reoccupy Gaza and remain there as a military occupation. This is the only way to protect its military gains. If they withdraw, Hamas will immediately rebuild. Moreover, Israel has been trying to find a third party to govern Gaza, but under a military occupation, they cannot find anyone willing to do the ‘dirty work’ for them.”
The IDF’s continued presence in Gaza presents Israel with military, diplomatic, and economic challenges.
While Israel claims to have eliminated some 17,000 Hamas fighters, leaders, and military personnel in Gaza, the Gaza Health Ministry simultaneously estimates that Israel’s operations have resulted in the deaths of some 24,000 Palestinians.
An estimated 90 percent of the Gaza Strip’s population has been displaced by the ongoing fighting and faces severe shortages of food, fuel, and medicine. The International Committee of the Red Cross reports that Gaza’s health system is on the verge of collapse.
Of the 251 hostages taken to Gaza, 117 were released in a November 2023 deal, while dozens more were found dead. About 101 remain in Gaza. In September 2024, Netanyahu estimated that only half of the remaining hostages were still alive.
The Gaza War has negatively impacted the economies of Israel, Gaza, and the Palestinian West Bank, leading to increased unemployment, longer military service terms, higher prices, a decline in tourism, and the cancellation of trade and investment agreements.
Regional conflict escalates: Hezbollah, Houthis, and other actors
A day after Hamas attacked Israel, Iran’s proxy group Hezbollah in Lebanon began launching rocket, drone, and missile attacks on Israel, claiming it was an act of solidarity with Hamas militants in Gaza.
The daily attacks forced the emergency evacuation of about 60,000 residents in Israel’s northern border area, and tens of thousands of civilians were evacuated from the Gaza border area after the October 7 attack.
As of October 1, 2024, more than 10,000 missiles have been fired at northern Israel in the past year, and approximately 100,000 residents of Israel’s southern and northern border areas remain displaced.
In Yemen, Iran-backed Houthi rebels have fired missiles and drones at Israel several times over the past year, occasionally obstructing and attacking vital international shipping passing along Yemen’s coast.
Since the outbreak of the Gaza War, Iranian-backed Syrian and Iraqi militias have also launched attacks on Israel and US military bases and interests in the Middle East from time to time.
Iran-Israel standoff
In addition to the conflict with Iran’s regional proxies, Iran and Israel are currently locked in a bitter confrontation that has escalated significantly since Israel bombed the Iranian embassy in Damascus in April last year, killing Iranian officials and fighters.
Iran and its proxies retaliated by launching hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles, and days later Israel reportedly struck air defense facilities and military bases inside Iran.
“Iran has for years used the Palestinian conflict to project power across the region, transcending sectarian lines,” said Michael Horowitz, director of intelligence at Lebeck, a Middle East geopolitical consultancy. “Iran doesn’t really care about the Palestinians; it just uses the Palestinian cause to advance its expansionist agenda.”
Tensions escalated further in July when a senior Hezbollah commander, Fuad Shukr, was assassinated in Beirut, along with an Iranian military adviser. On the same day, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was reportedly assassinated by Israel while attending the inauguration of the newly elected Iranian president in Tehran.
“Iran has a strong presence in the Middle East and is capable of fighting on multiple fronts,” explained Noor Dahri, executive director of the UK-based Islamic Theology of Counter Terrorism. “Israel is the only country with the capability, Western support, and military strength to destroy Iranian proxies in the region.”
Before Iran had a chance to retaliate, thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies carried by Hezbollah and militia members in Lebanon and Syria exploded simultaneously, killing 42. Also in September, the Israeli Air Force launched a bombing campaign in Beirut, killing Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and other senior Hezbollah commanders and the deputy commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
On September 30, Israel launched a ground offensive against southern Lebanon. On October 1, Iran launched 200 ballistic missiles at Israel.
Israel’s recent bombing of Hezbollah strongholds in southern Beirut has killed more than 700 people and displaced 500,000 Lebanese.
As Israel weighs retaliatory measures against Iran’s ballistic missile attacks, including strikes on oil storage facilities and nuclear facilities inside Iran, global leaders are urging all sides to cool tensions.
“Israel is playing its cards very carefully and effectively,” Daheri observed. “However, Iran’s spiritual leaders are off-limits, and (Israel) will never harm Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Hosseini Khamenei because harming him would provoke a regional religious war that Israel cannot handle.”
Horowitz predicted that retaliation could escalate further.
“With Israel having severely weakened Iran’s main proxy, Hezbollah, Iran finds itself forced into a direct confrontation with Israel,” he explained. “This could have long-term consequences: Iran may decide to step up its efforts and cross the nuclear threshold.”
Diplomatic efforts and global political games
“We are witnessing the largest counterterrorism operation ever undertaken in the Middle East,” said Casey Babb, a senior fellow at the Macdonald Laurier Institute in Ottawa and a security consultant at Secure Canada in Toronto.
“Israel has eliminated more terrorists from America’s ‘most wanted’ list than the United States has managed to eliminate in more than 20 years,” Babu continued. “This is not just about Israel restoring its ability to deter and weaken its adversaries — this is about Israel rewriting the script and charting a whole new path for Jerusalem and the Middle East.”
This new path, however, is fraught with challenges for Israel’s key allies.
“The conflicts that have occurred over the past year have presented significant challenges to U.S. policymakers,” the Congressional Research Service report said.
The US government has been acting as a mediator, pushing for ceasefire agreements between Israel and Gaza on several occasions, including the release of hostages and the provision of humanitarian aid, but no lasting agreement has been reached so far.
It is noteworthy that China has maintained a relatively low profile in the ongoing regional conflict.
“Throughout the conflict, China has kept its distance — and has played no diplomatic or practical role, even at the humanitarian level,” commented Khatib of Birzeit University.
“Russia keeps making statements and taking positions, but China deliberately stays away from the conflict. Iran’s plight is not good news for China. Israel’s success, which is seen as a success for the United States, is not good news for China.”
The Absence of Great Power and Future Prospects
“In years to come, the world may look back and point to the past few weeks and months as the beginning of a new era for the region — and the world,” predicted Kathy Babb, a security consultant from Canada.
“It would be easy to think right now that the situation in Israel is only heading towards greater disaster, but I remain very optimistic for many reasons. Many people throughout the Middle East are ready and eager for change – and Israel is offering them that opportunity,” he elaborated.
“For example, the people of Lebanon and Iran may soon have the opportunity to regain control of their countries, or at least be able to steer them in a better direction, away from the extremism that has plagued them for so long.”
But former Palestinian Authority official Khatib predicted that the current changes will come at a heavy cost to the people of the West Bank.
“Israel will try to accelerate the pace of settlement expansion in the West Bank, making life more difficult for Palestinians, increasing restrictions in order to have as many Jewish settlers as possible in these areas. We will see land confiscations, and moves to encourage settlements… Israel has no ambitions to acquire territory in Gaza or Lebanon,” he said.
Regarding the impact of international institutions in the past year’s events, Middle East geopolitics consultant Michael Horowitz commented on their lack of influence. “It is clear that the great powers have little influence in the Middle East, whether traditional powers such as the United States or ‘rising’ powers such as China and, to some extent, Russia, they are unable to truly shape the region. The US government is torn between its commitment to maintaining Israel’s security and its efforts to avoid escalation in the region. Washington is completely in a state of reactive reaction.”
“China is paying lip service to being completely anti-Israel, mostly through anti-American sentiment, but is really just distant background noise,” he said. “Russia is too busy with its failed occupation of Ukraine to pay close attention to the region—even though Israel bombed a warehouse near Syria’s main air base this week.”
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