Election 2024: Modi’s Coalition Conundrum in Indian Politics

Election 2024 result updates

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeks to form a coalition government after election results were not as expected

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to be sworn in for a third term on June 8, despite his party, the BJP, losing its parliamentary majority. Modi will need to rely on regional allies to form a government, marking a shift in his leadership. The lower voter turnout in the recent election and the opposition’s unexpected gains suggest a message from Indian voters to Modi and his ruling coalition.

While his weakened majority may slow down some key reforms, analysts believe that broad policies focusing on driving capital expenditure and improving the business environment will continue. The government remains confident in its ability to drive development and achieve sustained growth in the country.

Key Concepts

• Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to be sworn in for a third term on June 8.
• The BJP-led NDA won 293 seats in the recent election, but Modi will need support from regional allies to form a government.
• Modi will need to rely on regional parties for the first time, potentially complicating his reform agenda.
• The federal cabinet in India has recommended the dissolution of parliament to pave the way for Modi to form a new government.
• Modi’s BJP fell short of a majority in the lower house of parliament, leading to a weakened mandate.
• Analysts expect broad policies to continue focusing on driving capital expenditure and improving the business environment.
• The recent election results suggest a message from Indian voters to Modi and his ruling coalition.
• The voter turnout in India’s recent election was 66.3%, slightly lower than in the previous election.
• The low turnout was attributed to extreme weather conditions in northern India.
• The opposition INDIA alliance, led by Rahul Gandhi’s Congress party, exceeded expectations by winning 230 seats.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has pledged continued support from key allies and is expected to be sworn in on June 8 for a record-tying third term. The day before, the results of India’s general election were announced. Modi’s Indian nationalist party, “Bharatiya Janata Party” (BJP), unexpectedly lost the majority of seats in parliament it enjoyed during its previous two terms.

The Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won a total of 293 seats, 21 more than the 272 needed to form a government, but Modi’s party failed to win alone for the first time since taking power 10 years ago. A majority will now have to rely on different regional parties whose political loyalties have wavered over the years. Modi, a populist politician who has dominated Indian politics since taking power in 2014, will need support from regional allies for the first time, potentially complicating his government’s reform agenda.

On Wednesday, Modi is scheduled to meet with allies on June 5 to discuss forming a government. Two of his National Democratic Alliance allies—the Telugu Land Party, the main political party in the southern Indian state of Andhra Pradesh (TDP), and the Janata Dal (United), which governs the northern Indian state of Bihar—have pledged support.

“We stand with the National Democratic Alliance, and I will be present in Delhi today,” TDP leader Chandrababu Naidu told reporters while referring to the National Democratic Alliance meeting scheduled to be held later on Wednesday. meeting held.”

India’s federal cabinet met on Wednesday morning and recommended the dissolution of parliament, a constitutional procedure before Modi forms a new government. According to local media reports, Modi and his new cabinet are scheduled to be sworn in on Saturday (June 8).

According to the official results released on Tuesday (June 4) night, the “Bharatiya Janata Party” (BJP), led by Modi, won 240 seats alone in the lower house of parliament election, 32 seats short of holding half of the total 543 seats in the lower house of parliament.

But Modi, 73, insisted on Tuesday night that the election results were a victory that ensured he could continue his agenda, while his Hindu followers celebrated across the country. Modi told cheering supporters in the capital, New Delhi: “Our third term will make major decisions, and the country will write a new chapter of development. This is Modi’s guarantee.”

India’s benchmark stock indexes “NIFTY 50” and “BSE Sensex” both fell about 0.1% in early trading on Wednesday, following Tuesday’s tumble of about 6%, as Modi won a weaker-than-expected voter mandate in the general election, triggering a record-breaking decline. Foreign capital outflows spooked investor sentiment and worried about the impact on the pace of reform.

Commentators and exit polls predicted a landslide victory for Modi, whom critics accuse of spearheading the jailing of opposition figures and trampling on the rights of India’s more than 200 million Muslim communities.

Rating agency Moody’s said Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party won just 240 seats, a result that could slow India’s austerity policies. Another rating agency, Fitch, pointed out that the weakening of the majority of Modi’s ruling coalition may pose a challenge to the more ambitious parts of the government’s reform agenda.

However, Fitch added: “Despite a weak (parliamentary) majority, we do expect broad-based policies to persist, with the Indian government continuing to focus on driving capital spending, simplifying business measures, and gradually consolidating fiscal affairs.”

With the BJP losing ground in rural areas, investors say land and labor reforms that were expected to unlock value and growth potential may be put on hold.

Indian newspapers said that Modi’s halo has dimmed, and the headline of the Indian Express was: “India gives the National Democratic Alliance a third term, sending a message to Modi.”

Modi’s victory in the Varanasi constituency, considered one of the holiest Hindu cities, was modest, with his win falling to just 150,000 votes from nearly 500,000 votes in the last election in 2019.

According to data on 968 million voters released by the Election Commission of India, the turnout was 66.3%, down about one percentage point from 67.4% in the last election in 2019. Analysts attributed the low turnout partly to the sweltering weather in northern India, with temperatures exceeding 45 degrees Celsius.

But Arvind Panagariya, chairman of the government’s finance panel, said in an article published by India’s Economic Times that this reduction in victory does not necessarily mean the paralysis of reforms: “Despite the reduction in the parliamentary majority, the necessary reforms are entirely feasible, and accelerating the pace of sustained growth will only strengthen the government in the coming years.”

The opposition INDIA alliance, led by Rahul Gandhi’s centrist Congress party, won 232 seats, beating expectations. Among them, the Congress Party alone won 99 seats, almost double the 52 seats in 2019. The unexpected growth is expected to boost Rahul Gandhi’s standing.

The “India Alliance” is also expected to meet in New Delhi on Wednesday to discuss the future course of action.